On September 18, 2025, media outlets reported the resignation of Dmitri Kozak, which was said to have occurred voluntarily. Kozak, a long-time key figure in the Kremlin’s administration, had overseen Russia’s relations with post-Soviet countries, particularly Moldova. This resignation marks the end of a political era, as his approach to regional diplomacy failed to yield significant results across the post-Soviet space, including Moldova, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Ukraine.
The failure of Kozak’s strategies, such as covert negotiations and “controlled compromises,” paved the way for a shift in Kremlin policy toward a more aggressive approach. The focus has now shifted from a complex, hybrid policy towards a more forceful, direct style of governance, characterized by centralized control and tighter oversight of political processes.
Kozak’s Departure: Consequences for Moldova
Kozak’s resignation appears to be a consequence of a series of setbacks on „post-Soviet tracks,“ particularly in Moldova. His reliance on backroom deals and schemes involving financial backing and disinformation was exposed and partially neutralized. As a result, the Kremlin requires a new, more forceful managerial approach. Sergei Kirienko, who had de facto taken over the responsibility for Moldova, is now tasked with taking a more centralized, hardline approach to manage the region. Kirienko’s focus is on electoral technologies and political influence, with an increased risk of escalating hybrid actions.
Moldova’s Parliamentary Elections: A Critical Moment for Moscow
With Moldova’s parliamentary elections set for September 28, Russia sees this as a crucial window of opportunity. Moscow is likely to intensify its efforts to influence the outcome, using legal attacks, regional pressure, and media manipulation to create a sense of instability and uncertainty. These efforts aim to discredit Moldova’s pro-European trajectory and slow down or reverse the country’s integration with the European Union.
Russia’s strategic goal is to frame any further steps toward European integration as a threat to Moldova’s sovereignty and identity. This narrative will particularly target peripheral communities, where the influence of the Orthodox Church and Russia’s social messaging could mobilize anti-European sentiments. The Kremlin’s involvement will likely include support for pro-Russian forces in Moldova, such as Igor Dodon, Ilan Shor, and others in the Alternative bloc. The focus will not be on political branding, but rather on controlling election outcomes through targeted interventions.
The Role of the Orthodox Church and Information Campaigns
A key element of the Kremlin’s strategy in Moldova will be the mobilization of the Orthodox Church, which has close ties with the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC). The church will be instrumental in spreading social messages about the costs of European integration, migration, and economic hardship. These messages aim to demobilize Moldova’s pro-European electorate by dissuading participation in elections while energizing the pro-Russian vote.
In parallel, Kirienko is likely to focus on diaspora voting districts, leveraging targeted content aimed at socially vulnerable groups abroad. These efforts will likely use an „anti-system“ tone, masking informational attacks as local initiatives to sway voters toward Russia’s narrative.
A Testing Ground for Future Russian Interventions
Moldova remains a testing ground for Russia’s intervention strategies, combining bribery, media campaigns, and legal traps to influence elections. The goal is not just to win the upcoming parliamentary elections but also to delegitimize the election process itself if the desired results are not achieved. This could lead to a questioning of the legitimacy of Moldova’s political institutions and the election outcomes.
Moldova’s case could serve as a model for similar interventions in other European elections in the coming years, particularly during 2025-2026. The combination of legal, media, and financial pressure, alongside religious and non-governmental organizations, forms a technology of influence that Russia is likely to replicate in other European contexts.
